Setlineup: Monday is here.. 

Tonight’s slate is filled with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th man on the rotation. The most expensive option tonight isJames Shields for 8500.00. There will be plenty of room in the salary cap today to play premium hitters.

Cash game pitchers:

Jake Odorizzi (8100) – He can always be counted on to post a solid number of strike outs per outing. He has averaged over a K per inning over the 2nd half of the season.

Francisco Liriano (7100) – He should easily hit value tonight at this price point. He strikes out over a batter per inning, and should get the win in a lowing scoring game against STL. He has an xFIP of around 2.90 over the 2nd half. His GB% during the last 7 games has been almost 60%.

GPP play:

Roenis Elias (6700) – He will be in my lineup tonight. He posts the highest K/9 of any pitcher starting tonight since the all-star break. He has an ERA of 2.10 during that time. His xFIP of 3.94 suggest it may be time for him to regress, but I think he will be fine tonight against the Rangers.

I like the San Francisco and the Seattle stack tonight.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Monday, August 25, 2014 11:17:00 AM

Setlineup: Friday Night Pitchers 8/22/2014 

 

Cash game plays:

Felix Hernandez (11,000) – Since the break he has an ERA of 1.54 with an xFIP of 2.41. He is the safest start of the night.

Doug Fister (8600) – He has pitched extremely well over the second half of the season. He currently has an ERA below one over that period with a FIP of around 2.50. I would like to see him strike out a few more batters, but he will give you 7 solid innings and the win tonight.

GPP plays:

Carlos Carrasco (5700) – Has a 2.08 ERA over his last 4 starts. Has an xFIP of 2.41. His fastball has been averaging 96 mph. I could see him easily reaching and exceeding value.

Shane Greene (6900) – He is able to get the strike outs needed to hit value. His has a K rate is at almost a batter per inning. He has an xFIP of 3.18 since the break.

Pitchers to stack against:

Brad Peacock – 10.5 ERA, xFIP 5.59, and 3 HR/9 since the break.

Tommy Milone – 9.82 ERA, xFIP 5.49 and 2.45 HR/9 over his last 2 starts.

John Danks – 8.37 ERA, xFIP 5.01 and 2.43 HR/9 over last 6 starts.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Friday, August 22, 2014 11:10:00 AM

Setlineup: What Happened to Longo? 

 

Can Evan Longoria have a strong finish through the end of the season, or will his power numbers continue to struggle? Many of his batting stats have stayed consistent over his career while others have seemed to have taken a hit. His BABIP has always been close to .300 with the exception of 2011 where it fell to .239. This same year his BB% was at its highest at 13.9%. The stat that stands out the most is his ISO. Over the previous 5 years his ISO averaged .236. This season it is 100 points lower at .138. The decline with the amount of balls he hits power has had an overall effect on his homerun numbers. He is hitting the same number of balls, but not able to hit them with power. Although Longoria was only able to play 74 games in the 2012 season because of a hamstring injury he hit 2 more homeruns over that shortened season than he currently has with extra 60 games played. He finished 10th last season with 27 homeruns. This season he is in 48th position with 15. The numbers are clear to see, but the biggest concern is what is causing the decline. I personally think it is just temporary, and he will bounce back to an upper tier offensive threat.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Wednesday, August 20, 2014 11:33:00 AM

Setlineup: 2nd Half Numbers 

As we are comfortably past the midpoint of the season I decided to take a look at the top performers from that point in the season. Giancarlo Stanton immediately stands out with 10 HR and an ISO of .402 with a wOBA of .443 since the break. Chris Carter is right behind him with 9 dongs, ISO of .386, and wOBA of .453. These two batters are about 90 points ahead of third place, Brett Gardner, in the ISO statistic. A couple pitchers that stand out are Corey Kluber and Cole Hamels. Both have an ERA below 1.00 and have struck out over a better per inning.

Pitchers starting tonight:

Jason Vargas – 9 K/9 and an FIP of .99 for the 2ndhalf of the season.

Jordan Zimmerman – 8.88 K/9 and xFIP of 2.42 2ndhalf of season.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Wednesday, August 13, 2014 3:37:00 PM

Lineup Builder for Football 

Setlineup is not exclusive to MLB. The start of football season is less than a month away. In the coming weeks a Lineup Builder will be offered for NFL Fanduel games. Everyone will still have access to the MLB Lineup Builder through the end of the season.
Posted by Shane Greenwood Thursday, August 07, 2014 3:53:00 PM

Setlineup: Mid Week Early Games 

The White Sox have great match up today against the Rangers as well as the Braves against the Mariners.

Chris Sale – The top elite option for the early games. K/9 is above 10 and FIP of 2.28. He should get more than enough run support today to get the win as the Sox face Nick Tepesch.

Jose Abreu – Facing righties he has an ISO of .321 with a wOBA of .414. He should defiantly be able to exploit Tepesch today.

Conor Gillaspie – Hitting .351 against righties with a .400 wOBA.

Alexei Ramirez – wOBA of .336 with 9 HR from that side.

Evan Gattis – wOBA of .343 with 12 HR against righties.

Justin Upton – wOBA of .355 with 13 HR against righties.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Wednesday, August 06, 2014 11:34:00 AM

Setlineup: Where is tonight's value? 

Tonight’s lineup of games offers many options to choose from at the pitcher position. This should make the cash games interesting because there should be less overlap at this position. Below are a few players that stand out tonight.

Clayton Kershaw – He has been the best in the business over the past month. He has a K/9 rate of over 11, and xFIP under 2.00. He has averaged 20.25 over the last 15 days at a cost of 622.00 per point.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto has a 15 game point average just below Kershaw’s at 19.5. His xFIP is respectfully just above 3.00. At a FD cost of 10300.00 his cost per point is 528.00.

Dallas Keuchel – He has offered the best value over the 15 days. He has averaged 15.5 point over that period for a cost of 516.00 per point. His ERA is around 3.00 with an xFIP to match.

Jesse Hahn – You can count on him giving you around 13 points per outing. This has been constant all year. His ERA is 2.01, and xFIP of 3.16. At 7100.00 on FD he offers a lot of value. He cost per point is 546.00

Posted by Shane Greenwood Tuesday, August 05, 2014 2:32:00 PM

Finding Value 

What is the total number of points we must reach each night to win? During the NBA season I found that 300 points would often put me in the money. Baseball fluctuates much more on a given night, but my goal is to reach the 40 point mark. This is a good point to determine which guys have value, and which ones are overpriced. To reach this point total each point will cost 875.00. Selecting a roster where every player reaches value is almost impossible. It takes a roster with some players that exceed value to make up the difference for the players that fall short. Often times the pitcher position is the most predicable to determine value. Below are a few pitchers from the late games.

Clayton Kershaw – He has averaged 16 FP over the last 15 days. His last outing he scored 20 FP. At a cost of 12,100 the price per point is 745.25. He is well in range of hitting value, and always has the potential of exceeding it.

Johnny Cueto – He has averaged 14 FP over the last 15 days, and his last outing matched Clayton Kershaw’s 20 points. At a price tag of 10300 the price per point is 700.68.

Yordano Ventura – He has averaged 5.8 points over the last 15 days. His price on today is set at 7000. This relates to 1206.90 per point which is well above the 850.00 mark. With that said I see a good chance of him making value tonight. He averages 6 innings per outing, and has an ERA around 3.60. He averages 7.5 K/9, and is heavily favored to get the win. I could easily see him reaching 12 FP tonight. This would make his cost 583.34 per point.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Thursday, July 31, 2014 11:29:00 AM

Tuesday Plays 

T. Ross- He should be safe play to hit value. He has great strikeout numbers, and low ERA and xFIP. If the Padres can find a way to give him some run support it will be a bonus.

F. Liriano- This play is a little riskier, but at a price of 6900.00 it opens up options. The only player that strikes out more batters per inning on the slate tonight is S. Strasburg .

A Cobb- Favored to get the win tonight in a matchup against former Ray M. Garza.  xFIP of under 3.50 and around 8 K/9.

Teams to stack tonight are Cincinnati, Oakland, and the Yankees.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Tuesday, July 29, 2014 3:03:00 PM

First Week After the Break 

Friday night officially started the second half of the season with the all-star game behind us.  From this point on we will hear stats about how someone has played since the break. They have only played three days of games since the break, but I thought I would look to see who stood out over the weekend. The first player is Anthony Rizzo. He only struck out once and batted over .450 with 3 homers. His ISO was over .800 which explains the HR total.  Neil Walker had a nice weekend batting close to .600 with a homer. The last guy I will mention is Jacoby Ellsbury. He had a BABIP of .560. His stat line also included 3 stolen bags and a HR.

Pitchers on the slate tonight

C. Sale- He leads in every stat category today including price.

J. Teheran- Heavily favored in a low scoring game. xFIP is higher than his 2.70 ERA suggesting he is due to regress, but he should be a safe play tonight against the fish.

M. Shoemaker- xFIP of 3.30, and strikes out about a batter per inning. He should get the win against B. Norris. This is strictly a GPP play.

Pitchers that will likely give up a homerun  

F. Morales Has a crazy 20% HR/FB ratio. Roster as many Nationals as you can..

V. Nuno  Only 37% of the balls hit are on the ground. He gives up about 1.5 HR per 9 innings he pitches. This should be high scoring game.

T. House He has a small body of work to judge, but during his 45 innings pitched 1 out of 3 balls hit into the air left the ballpark. His BABIP is over .340.

Posted by Shane Greenwood Monday, July 21, 2014 9:53:00 AM
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